Home | About Us | Our mission | Contact Us » Network » Projects » Campaigns » Cases under monitoring » About your case » Donors » Press Releases » Links » Archive "Articles" © 2005 Peopleofbulgaria.org design & support Kruzdesign.com WAR IN IRAQ / » archive     page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13             David Brooks: Taking a long view of the Iraq conflict The New York Times SUNDAY, DECEMBER 18, 2005 WASHINGTON Over the past few years, the Iraq war has morphed from a war of liberation against Saddam Hussein into a civil conflict between Sunnis and Shiites. And when you look at this civil conflict - or civil war if you want to call it that - you see how typical it is of many of the civil wars we've seen in the world over the past six decades. Over that time, there have been 225 civil wars, and many of them have featured the same sort of insurgency and counterinsurgency, the same ethnic feuding and the same pattern of elections intermingled with violence that we see in Iraq today. American policy makers and think-tank Johnnies have not really looked at Iraq in the broader context of these other conflicts. That's in part because when Americans think of civil war, they tend to think of their own Civil War, which was utterly atypical. It's also because American experts were almost all trained to think about wars between nations, even though civil wars are nine times more common. If, however, you do happen upon the Journal of Peace Research, where specialists do write about civil wars, you find that their broad perspective helps you see Iraq in clear and refreshing ways. It's interesting to know, for example, that the median civil war lasts about six years. It's also interesting to know that most civil wars start, as Iraq's did, because of a power vacuum at the top. When a country's central government becomes ineffective, as Iraq's did after the toppling of Saddam, groups begin to grab for power and resources. (Civil wars are much more likely in countries with oil or other mineral wealth.) The leaders of insurgent armies certainly magnify ethnic grievances as part of their grab for spoils, but sectarian hatred usually isn't sufficient to start civil wars. These wars are started by local elites that are essentially making an investment. They decide to commit violence now in the hopes of grabbing great wealth later. The people who do the killing might be whipped up by ethnic grievances, but the people who lead civil wars are usually rational and greedy. Once a war starts, the length of the war is influenced by how strong and effective the central government is. If the central government is strong enough to fight back against insurgents, demonstrate resolve in the face of setbacks and also bribe insurgent leaders into joining the establishment, then the war can be cut short. If the central government is weak or corrupt, or if it reacts to the insurgency with excessive brutality, then the war drags on. This is why it is essential that the United States remain in Iraq until it is sure that the central government is strong. There are three ways civil wars end. In countries where ethnic hatreds have been whipped to fever pitch, there may be no answer but partition - separating the two groups. In countries where one side will settle for nothing less than total victory, then the war rages until one side suffers a crushing defeat. But the best news out of Iraq last week was that the Sunnis voted joyfully and in large numbers. In what they said and the way they acted, both the Sunnis and Shiites made it clear that while they are engaged in a fierce rivalry, they fervently believe in a democratic and unified Iraq. This is not yet a to-the-death struggle. That makes the third option for ending a civil war - a joint governing agreement - more likely. The difficulty in ending a civil war via compromise is that neither side can trust the other enough to lay down its arms. That's why it is necessary to have a third party - in Iraq, the United States - to cajole the two sides toward the settlement, to enforce the agreement afterward, to nurture a functioning social contract after that, and to prevent hostile outside powers from spoiling the deal. That's why, again, it is essential that the United States remain in Iraq long enough to de-escalate the conflict. At the very moment that American gloom-mongers are opting for panicked withdrawal, there's been a pileup of good news on Iraq: the improved training of Iraqi troops, the more effective counterinsurgency strategies, the booming Iraqi economy, the vastly improved White House communication strategy, the amazing confidence of the Iraqi people and, most of all, this glorious election. All of which means that Iraq's civil war doesn't have to be a cataclysmic one - that is, if Iraqis keep their heads and the United States has the perseverance to finish the job. read more » Sources: Thousands of Turkish troops enter Iraq ANKARA, Turkey (AP) -- Several thousand Turkish troops crossed into northern Iraq early Wednesday to chase Kurdish guerrillas who operate from bases there, Turkish security officials said.... Could an al-Qaeda Attack Trigger War With Iran? Following revelations of a George W. 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