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Religious Groups Take Early Lead in Iraqi
Ballots
December 20, 2005
By EDWARD WONG
BAGHDAD, Iraq, Dec. 19 - Early voting results announced
by Iraqi electoral officials on Monday, with nearly
two-thirds of the ballots counted, indicated that
religious groups, particularly the main Shiite coalition,
had taken a commanding lead. The secular coalition
led by Ayad Allawi, the former prime minister, had
won only meager support in crucial provinces where
it had expected to do well, including Baghdad.
The front-runner among Sunni Arab voters was a religious
coalition whose leaders have advocated resistance
to the American military and have demanded that
President Bush set a timetable for withdrawing the
American military from Iraq.
The preliminary results accounted for more than
90 percent of votes cast in 11 of Iraq's 18 provinces.
About 7 million ballots have been counted, of an
estimated turnout of 11 million in the vote on Thursday
for a full, four-year government, electoral officials
said.
Officials warned that the results could still change.
The Iraqi electoral commission has received 692
complaints of campaign violations or voter fraud,
at least 20 of which are considered potentially
serious enough to "affect specific election
results," said Adel al-Lami, the commission's
chief electoral officer. Several candidates, including
Mr. Allawi, have angrily accused the main Shiite
coalition of underhanded tactics, such as tearing
down posters and ordering police officers to campaign
for it.
The early election results gave strong indications
that Iraqis cast their ballots based on sectarian
or ethnic allegiances, as in the elections in January
for a transitional government. The results also
indicated that much of the electorate is staunchly
religious, even though many experts once believed
that the country had a large secular middle class.
The early results for Baghdad Province, the most
diverse in the country, provided the strongest indication
of the religious nature of the voting. With 89 percent
of the ballots here counted, the main Shiite coalition,
the United Iraqi Alliance, had won 1.4 million votes,
or 59 percent. The runner-up was the Iraqi Consensus
Front, the main religious Sunni Arab coalition,
with 19 percent. Mr. Allawi's secular coalition,
the Iraqi List, was third, at 14 percent.
Another prominent secular candidate, Ahmad Chalabi,
the former Pentagon favorite, won less than a half
of 1 percent of the vote in Baghdad, possibly denying
him a seat in the Council of Representatives.
Fifty-nine of the 275 seats in the council are up
for grabs in Baghdad, more than in any other province.
The results come as a blow to Mr. Allawi, a White
House favorite, and his fellow candidates, who had
expected to win broad support in Baghdad. In the
province that is home to Basra, the country's second
largest city, Mr. Allawi won only 11 percent; in
Sunni-dominated Salahuddin Province, he had 14 percent.
Mr. Allawi had been hoping that growing discontent
with the transitional government, which is led by
religious Shiite parties, and the earnest participation
of Sunni Arab voters would get him more support
than he had in January, when his group won only
40 of 275 seats in the transitional assembly.
Mr. Allawi has filed formal complaints against the
Shiite coalition, accusing it of campaign malfeasance
and vote fraud. "We're waiting for their response
to the violations and falsifications," Saad
al-Janabi, a candidate in Mr. Allawi's coalition,
said of the electoral commission. "We're asking
for the United Nations, the United States and international
groups to intervene at once."
An important question is whether the Sunni Arab
parties will be invited to join in the new government.
They disagree with the religious Shiites on fundamental
issues like whether autonomous regions should exist
and how oil revenues should be distributed. If the
Sunnis are denied their say, that could further
inflame the insurgency and possibly undermine plans
to draw down the 160,000 American troops here.
Until all the ballots are counted, it will be impossible
to determine exactly how many seats each political
group will get. The number of seats will dictate
what alliances the parties will make as they negotiate
to form a government, which requires a two-thirds
vote of the Parliament. The early results show that
the Shiite coalition will again be at the center
of the negotiations because it will almost certainly
win more than a third of the seats, giving it veto
power over any proposed government.
Mr. Allawi still has a slim chance of cobbling together
a government if he can unite with the Sunni Arabs
and the Kurds, and pull away some religious Shiites.
That task would undoubtedly be made more difficult,
though, by a poor showing and by the influence of
Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the most revered
Shiite cleric in Iraq, who has fought hard to put
the religious Shiite parties in power.
After a lull around the elections, violence flared
across parts of Iraq on Monday. A car bomb exploded
near an Iraqi police patrol in Baghdad, killing
at least two civilians and wounding at least eight
others, including four policemen, an Interior Ministry
official said. Gunmen fired on a convoy carrying
the deputy governor of Baghdad, Tarik al-Zawbai,
killing three bodyguards and wounding Mr. Zawbai,
another guard and a pedestrian, the official said.
The American military said a marine was killed Sunday
by small-arms fire in Ramadi, the insurgent-rife
capital of Anbar Province.
The Islamic Army in Iraq, a Baathist militant group,
released a six-second video showing what it claimed
to be the killing of Ronald Alan Schulz, 40, an
American security contractor abducted earlier this
month, according to the SITE Institute, which tracks
insurgent postings. Because the victim has his back
to the camera in the video, it is impossible to
identify him.
In its announcement on Monday, the electoral commission
did not release early numbers for several provinces
with significant Sunni populations, except for Salahuddin.
The main Kurdish coalition overwhelmingly dominated
the three northern Kurdish provinces, as did the
main Shiite coalition in the south.
"I feel sorry for some lists," said Hadi
al-Amiri, a senior member of the Shiite coalition.
"I hope they get at least one seat. This election
shows who has support and foundations on the ground."
But protests against the Shiite-led government erupted
in some southern cities on Monday, after Mr. Chalabi,
a vice prime minister, announced Sunday that the
government was cutting back on its consumer fuel
subsidies. The price of one liter of leaded gasoline
has increased to the equivalent of 10 cents from
3½ cents. Free-market economists say the
subsidies have drained the government's budget,
and smugglers have been selling the cheap gas for
enormous profits in neighboring countries.
Sahar al-Najib and Abdul
Razzaq al-Saiedi contributed reporting for this
article.
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