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The Real Reason for Nuking Iran
Why a nuclear attack is on the neocon agenda
by Jorge Hirsch
The strategic decision by the United States to nuke
Iran was probably made long ago. Tactics adjust
to unpredictable events as they unfold.
There was such an event last week, when Iran's president
declared that Israel must be "wiped off"
the map. The surprise was not the statement, which
was an often-repeated quote by the late Ayatollah
Khomeini, directed at a domestic student audience.
What was surprising was both the timing (amid discussions
about whether Iran should be allowed to enrich uranium)
and the relatively low-key U.S. response. Tony Blair
expressed "revulsion," Chirac was "profoundly
shocked," the European Union in a joint statement
"condemned [it] in the strongest terms."
Instead, Bush was quiet.
White House Spokesman Scott McClellan commented,
"It underscores the concerns we have about
Iran's nuclear intentions," and the usually
vociferous U.S. ambassador to the UN John Bolton
only said that Ahmadinejad's remarks about Israel
were "pernicious and unacceptable." Those
are uncharacteristically mild statements for this
administration in the face of such a provocative
statement by Iran against one of the U.S.' closest
allies. Why?
Because Iran's intended underlying message to the
U.S., which was ill-timed only in appearance, was:
If you nuke us, the world will know that you did
it because Iran supports the Palestinian cause.
Instead, it is in the U.S.' interests to de-emphasize
any suggestion to that effect, hence its low-key
response. Because nuking Iran for threatening Israel
will inflame the Arab world and will not be acceptable
to our European allies nor even to the American
public. There are many other justifications that
the Western world and the American public will find
more acceptable, and these will be emphasized by
the Bush administration at the right moment.
Iran "is determined to get nuclear weapons
deliverable on ballistic missiles that it can then
use to intimidate not only its own region but possibly
to supply to terrorists." (John Bolton, Oct.
15, 2005)
"We cannot let Iran, a leading sponsor of
international terrorism, acquire the most destructive
weapons and the means to deliver them to Europe,
most of central Asia and the Middle East, or beyond."
(John Bolton, June 24, 2004)
"[S]yria and Iran
share the goal of hurting
America.
State sponsors like Syria and Iran have
a long history of collaboration with terrorists
."
(George Bush, Oct. 6, 2005)
The 9/11 Commission determined that al-Qaeda had
long-standing and strong ties to Iran, for example
that "senior al-Qaeda operatives and trainers
traveled to Iran to receive training in explosives."
(By contrast, it found no ties between al-Qaeda
and Iraq).
Iran was responsible for the 1996 Khobar Towers
bombing, where 19 Americans were killed and 372
wounded, according to a June 2001 indictment by
the U.S. attorney general. According to the 9/11
Commission, al-Qaeda may also have been involved.
Hezbollah, a terrorist group tied to Iran, carried
out the suicide bombing in Beirut that killed 241
U.S. Marines in 1982. Iran was directly involved,
according to a ruling by U.S. District Court Judge
Royce Lamberth in May 2003.
The real reason for nuking Iran, however, is none
of the above. It was spelled out with surprising
candor in the Pentagon draft document "Doctrine
for Joint Nuclear Operations" [.pdf] as one
of several possible reasons geographic combatant
commanders may request presidential approval for
use of nuclear weapons:
"To demonstrate
U.S. intent and capability to use nuclear weapons
to deter adversary use of WMD."
Yes, you read it right: The U.S. is prepared to
break a 60-year-old taboo on the use of nuclear
weapons against non-nuclear countries not because
the survival of the country is at stake, not because
the lives of many Americans or allies are at stake
just to demonstrate that it can do it.
The U.S. has maintained for some time now that it
reserves the right to respond with nuclear weapons
to attacks or intended attacks with WMD, and that
it intends to use nuclear weapons to destroy underground
enemy facilities. It is argued that such statements
have deterrent value, and that maintaining ambiguity
as to what might trigger a U.S. nuclear attack deters
countries from pursuing military initiatives that
are contrary to U.S. interests.
Nonsense. Those statements have no deterrent value
because no one in his or her right mind would believe
that the greatest democracy in the world would do
such a thing.
Unless the U.S. demonstrates, by actually doing
it once, that it is indeed prepared to do so.
How do you create the conditions to perform such
a demonstration and avoid immediate universal condemnation?
You declare Iran to be the second member of the
"axis of evil."
You start a "global war on terror."
You invade the first member of the axis (Iraq)
and put 150,000 U.S. troops at the doorstep of the
second member, in harm's way not enough troops
to invade Iran, nor to prevent an Iranian invasion
of Iraq after Iran is attacked.
You strike Iran's facilities, using conventional
and nuclear bombs, to deter Iran from retaliating
with missiles with chemical warheads and from invading
Iraq, thereby saving the lives of 150,000 American
soldiers.
You argue that Iran's chemical and nuclear facilities
had to be destroyed to prevent terrorists using
weapons from those facilities to attack the U.S.
(Never mind that the nuclear facilities were just
nuclear reactors, not nuclear weapons).
You get Israel to pull the trigger, i.e., bomb
some Iranian installations (as it did in Iraq at
Osirak) to provoke an Iranian response.
Now enter the world after the U.S. "demo,"
according to U.S. planners:
There will be no doubt that U.S. statements on
the use of nuclear weapons will have deterrent value.
The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty will be amended
to prohibit uranium-enrichment for all countries
that do not do it already; violators will be nuked.
North Korea will be forced to disarm under the
now real and credible threat of massive U.S. nuclear
attack.
Any country suspected of pursuing nuclear weapons
or any other military capability that could threaten
the U.S. or its allies will be nuked.
Russia, China, and all other nuclear countries
will eventually be forced to disarm under the threat
of massive U.S. nuclear attack.
However, the real world does not always follow the
script envisioned by U.S. planners, as the Iraq
experience illustrates. So here is a more likely
"post-demo" scenario:
Many non-nuclear countries, including those currently
friendly to the U.S., will rush to develop a nuclear
deterrent, and many will succeed.
Terrorist groups sympathetic to Iran will do their
utmost to retaliate in-kind against the U.S., and
eventually will succeed.
With the taboo against the use of nuclear weapons
broken, use of them by other countries will follow
in various regional conflicts, and subsequent escalation
will lead to global nuclear war.
Bye-bye world, including the United States of America.
Jorge Hirsch is a professor of physics at the
University of California San Diego.
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